Never mind the relative strengths of Udinese Calcio and Hull City, today's playoff shoot out boils down to the quality of the two contenders' opponents. If Cardiff are still focused, Hull are at a massive disadvantage because, as Nice Guy Brian is beginning to understand, the Leeds squad he has inherited is woefully inadequate.
After the 6-1 home humiliation at the hands of the Calabroni, Leeds should have their pride to play for, but the Warnock convinced them after the game that they were the better team and had been robbed by poor refereeing decisions. In fact, the guys in the Leeds dressing room don't understand that they have lost a game all season. It was always down to the officials or stupid Tom Lees. And nothing has changed under Nice Guy Brian who blamed the absurd sending off of AllAgro for the last Leeds reverse.
All that said, Zola is absolutely convinced that the families have united to block Udinese's promotion to the Prem. If Leeds are awarded a dodgy penalty today, or a Calabrone is dismissed, expect cries of ingiusto.
Watford have to be clear favourites to win the game, even if the officials are wearing Leeds kits when they run out on to the pitch, which puts all the pressure on Hull and Steve Bruce.
Hull's recent form is poor and their strikers have forgotten how to score - which is bad news when you are playing against the divisional Champions who have built success on a water tight defence. If Cardiff score early, or news comes through that Watford are ahead, alarm bells will start ringing and the players will start to panic. The only hope for Hull is if Cardiff arrive unfocused because their season is over.
Meanwhile, Leeds are cast in the embarrassing role of "making up the numbers". Three of the clubs involved are dreaming of the Prem; Leeds fans are simply relieved that the club is not involved in the battle to avoid the drop which involves all eight clubs beneath them.