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Monday, 11 March 2013

The Stats Say To Back Peterborough to Draw at Leeds

After seven games, Peterborough were rock bottom of the Championship and literally pointless. Now they sit second from bottom and have just 38 points. On paper, this should be a doddle for Warnock and his resurgent Whites, until you consider the facts.

Leeds fan are rightly chuffed after avoiding defeat at Leicester and Palace but the stats suggested those results as the most likely outcome. Leicester are in a terrible run, as their defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday confirmed on Saturday, and can't win a match for love nor money. The clever money bet against a Leicester win and, as the Wednesday result proved, the draw represented a missed opportunity for Leeds.

The opposite applied at Palace. Holloway's team went into the game on the back of five straight home wins and chasing a record that stretched back for I don't know how long - but it was a bloody long time! Records stand for a long time for a reason and betting any team to win six homes games on the bounce deserves longish odds, outside of teams like Man Utd, Real Madrid and Barcelona. So, in truth, it was no surprise to see an ordinary Palace team fail to to prevail.

But back to Peterborough and Leeds. At home, Leeds have ridden their luck a little in recent weeks and Fortress Elland Road isn't quite what it seems. Leeds are still struggling to score goals and I fancy they will need at least two to beat Ferguson's Peterborough.

Posh may be second from bottom, but they won at Blackburn, which Leeds couldn't do, and thumped a Millwall team away from home that Warnock;s team struggled to overcome at home. Do the calculations and the form of the two teams hasn't been that different if you ignore that seven game losing run that Peterborough suffered before their season really got started. Since then, Posh have averaged 1.31 points per game, whilst Leeds' record over the season has seen them pick up 1.41 points per match.

Given the gulf in the league table, the goal difference is surprisingly close too. Peterborough's stands at minus 10  and Leeds at minus four; but Peterborough's goal difference stood at minus 11 after those first seven games, so they are a goal to the good subsequently.

The biggest problem is that Leeds go into the game expecting to win. All the focus has been on the Leicester and Palace games, and this match is like the water jump after the Chair in the Grand National, apparently easy but fraught with danger nevertheless.

This is a game that neither team can afford not to win. My money is on a 1-1 draw.

27 comments:

  1. What a load of bollocks. If a team wins five on the trot at home, are you seriously suggesting that they will be increasingly unlikely to win the next match ?
    Messi has scored in 17 consecutive la liga matches, does that make it more or less likely that he will score in the next one ?


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    1. Less of course. Sooner or later he won't score!

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    2. To put it another way which your limited mind might better understand.
      If I have a dice, I throw 5 sixes in a row, does that make it more or less likely I will throw another 6 ?
      Of course its hightly unlikely that I can throw 6 sixes in a row, however the odds on the sixth do not change....of course.

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    4. An interesting question, and the explanation of my answer requires the unseen hand of God. Toss a coin enough times and it will come down approximately 50% heads and 50% tails. So, if the first 50 spins come down heads, the chances of it coming down tails in later spins must increase; it actually becomes MORE PROBABLE for a tails in order to balance out over time. It is as if the coin has a memory and is compelled to balance itself out. Now that is utterly illogical in one sense, but I have long argued an absolute probability and an implied probability. Just as the universe can't exist without the square root of minus one (which can exist only in theory), so the universe is governed by a probability bias beyond the moment of the test itself. Yes every individual spin is a 50-50 chance, but beyond that, there is a force that evens out temporary imbalances, which shifts or weights the balance to 60-40 or 70-30 or 80-20 once an imbalance has been established. Some call that God!

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    5. Are you seriously suggesting we got a point at Palace with the assistance of 'a force that evens out temporary imbalances'? Or are you saying Morison is god ?
      Give him another 5 seasons of 30+ goals and maybe I will agree with the latter.
      In the meantime, I have to say you are talking bollocks (again).

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    6. Wow, how stupid do you sound? Yes law of averages means that eventually it will balance out when the coin is flipped repeatedly, but this may take millions of flips. To say that the results of one coin toss would effect the next is ridiculous. The odds of last week's lottery numbers being drawn this week are the same as the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 coming out. the odds will always be the same. And btw the queens head is heavier than whatever is on tails on english coins so it would be more like 47-53 % in favor of tails

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    7. 1420, you affirm my argument even as you strive to refute it. You accept that "eventually it will even itself out" but why? If every toss is 50-50 there is no LOGICAL reason why it should even itself out. It could, in theory, come down heads ten billion times in a row. But it doesn't, as you say, over time it evens itself out because, somewhere, there is a force that insists upon equilibrium. Ying and Yang. heads and tails. God and satan. Good and evil. West Ham and Leeds!

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  2. Thank you as always for your continued support of all things related to the famous Leeds United A.F.C..You never got back to me on my other of watching the great Leeds United A.F.C. this coming saturday but you are more than welcomed to continue your support of the mighty Leeds United A.F.C. at elland road this saturday against Huddersfield,tickets start at around £34,but please check with the ticket office 0871 334 1992 to avoid disapointment i advice to book asap,you don,t want to miss out on the party..Thank you for your support by constantly following Leeds United A.F.C. on the radio,your,press and the t.v...Hope i did not upset on my previous comment as it never went to press.If i did upset you i am truely sorry.

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  3. Piss off you pathetic little boy

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  4. We will win the game but the reality is it will only delay the inevitable. Leeds now have absolutely nothing to lose which is exactly why we will beat Peterborough tomorrow. No pressure really.

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  5. What no comments 90 Mins after posting.Have people got bored of you?

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    1. Seemingly not Des. You still look in!

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    2. utter bilge, the toss of a coin is 50/50, never will it change, if a team are in form they are more likely to win, but palace failed... if leeds didnt have a player wrongly sent off at watford then get one injured they would have a better goal difference, stop talking like your a Man utd fan and get a life

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  6. 3-1 to Leeds

    Perth Whites

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  7. A resounding lack of objectivity in your analysis there HF - a common mistake amongst the uneducated.

    Keep your fingers crossed though because if you fluke it then in your head you will be a genius - a common mistake amongst the deluded!

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  8. Good work on the maths. You seem to have put some effort into this piece, as opposed to the drivel you write about your own team. Seeing as you've learnt how to work out averages, why don't you work out the average number of points Leeds have won at home, and Posh have won away, and then tell us all who the smart money is on?

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    1. It's a fair point. You have your bet, at very cramped odds, I'll have mine. How many games have Leeds won my a margin of more than one goal? It will come back to bite you soon and it may be tomorrow!

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    2. It's come back to bite us in 3 of our last 5 away games with late equalisers - by your weird logic that would make it less likely to happen tonight?

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    3. Less likely to happen in the next away game, more likely at home as it hasn't bitten you yet. 1-0 to Peterborough at half time!

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  9. MY MY MY
    YOU'RE A NOB
    SURELY YOU MEAN BY BY BY
    BYE

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  10. Cock ......end off .

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  11. A crowd of over 25ooo will roar the whites on.2 nil to the dirty leeds.

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  12. So if the Leicester result was predictable why did you predict 2-0 to Leicester?

    My money's on you losing your money.

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  13. I personally think the way we have been playing we are due to give someone a hiding soon. Our back 5 are tight, we are creating chances, colin finally settled on a team and our number nine has started scoring. My money is on leeds to score 3 or more

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  14. I personally think the way we have been playing we are due to give someone a hiding soon. Our back 5 are tight, we are creating chances, colin finally settled on a team and our number nine has started scoring. My money is on leeds to score 3 or more

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  15. Judging by your crap predictions last week I will encourage you to put your money where your mouth is. We got a point at a rubbish Leicester, a point at ordinary Palace and got a draw at injury hit Blackburn. What will Peterborough be if we manage to beat them. Utter garbage? Its just a pity we can't play you every week or we would be pissing the Championship by a country mile by now going by your logic. Peterborough are down there for a reason and didn't Palace start off with a few defeats?

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