After seven games, Peterborough were rock bottom of the Championship and literally pointless. Now they sit second from bottom and have just 38 points. On paper, this should be a doddle for Warnock and his resurgent Whites, until you consider the facts.
Leeds fan are rightly chuffed after avoiding defeat at Leicester and Palace but the stats suggested those results as the most likely outcome. Leicester are in a terrible run, as their defeat at home to Sheffield Wednesday confirmed on Saturday, and can't win a match for love nor money. The clever money bet against a Leicester win and, as the Wednesday result proved, the draw represented a missed opportunity for Leeds.
The opposite applied at Palace. Holloway's team went into the game on the back of five straight home wins and chasing a record that stretched back for I don't know how long - but it was a bloody long time! Records stand for a long time for a reason and betting any team to win six homes games on the bounce deserves longish odds, outside of teams like Man Utd, Real Madrid and Barcelona. So, in truth, it was no surprise to see an ordinary Palace team fail to to prevail.
But back to Peterborough and Leeds. At home, Leeds have ridden their luck a little in recent weeks and Fortress Elland Road isn't quite what it seems. Leeds are still struggling to score goals and I fancy they will need at least two to beat Ferguson's Peterborough.
Posh may be second from bottom, but they won at Blackburn, which Leeds couldn't do, and thumped a Millwall team away from home that Warnock;s team struggled to overcome at home. Do the calculations and the form of the two teams hasn't been that different if you ignore that seven game losing run that Peterborough suffered before their season really got started. Since then, Posh have averaged 1.31 points per game, whilst Leeds' record over the season has seen them pick up 1.41 points per match.
Given the gulf in the league table, the goal difference is surprisingly close too. Peterborough's stands at minus 10 and Leeds at minus four; but Peterborough's goal difference stood at minus 11 after those first seven games, so they are a goal to the good subsequently.
The biggest problem is that Leeds go into the game expecting to win. All the focus has been on the Leicester and Palace games, and this match is like the water jump after the Chair in the Grand National, apparently easy but fraught with danger nevertheless.
This is a game that neither team can afford not to win. My money is on a 1-1 draw.