Leeds robbed in 1-1 home draw with Peterborough

Oh dear. It was a fluke of course. How could I know that the game would end up 1-1 just as I predicted and blogged?

One Leeds fan felt the need to post "A resounding lack of objectivity in your analysis there HF - a common mistake amongst the uneducated. Keep your fingers crossed though because if you fluke it then in your head you will be a genius - a common mistake amongst the deluded!"

Another commented "Good work on the maths. You seem to have put some effort into this piece, as opposed to the drivel you write about your own team. Seeing as you've learnt how to work out averages, why don't you work out the average number of points Leeds have won at home, and Posh have won away, and then tell us all who the smart money is on?"

But funnily enough, I wasn't forecasting a Leeds home win or a Peterborough away win, I predicted a 1-1 draw!

For the record, this is exactly what I said:

"But back to Peterborough and Leeds. At home, Leeds have ridden their luck a little in recent weeks and Fortress Elland Road isn't quite what it seems. Leeds are still struggling to score goals and I fancy they will need at least two to beat Ferguson's Peterborough.

Posh may be second from bottom, but they won at Blackburn, which Leeds couldn't do, and thumped a Millwall team away from home that Warnock;s team struggled to overcome at home. Do the calculations and the form of the two teams hasn't been that different if you ignore that seven game losing run that Peterborough suffered before their season really got started. Since then, Posh have averaged 1.31 points per game, whilst Leeds' record over the season has seen them pick up 1.41 points per match.

Given the gulf in the league table, the goal difference is surprisingly close too. Peterborough's stands at minus 10 and Leeds at minus four; but Peterborough's goal difference stood at minus 11 after those first seven games, so they are a goal to the good subsequently.

The biggest problem is that Leeds go into the game expecting to win. All the focus has been on the Leicester and Palace games, and this match is like the water jump after the Chair in the Grand National, apparently easy but fraught with danger nevertheless.

This is a game that neither team can afford not to win. My money is on a 1-1 draw. "

You see, statistics make sense, and that unseen balancer in the universe, He who wants equilibrium and ensures a coin comes down 500 times heads and 500 times tails said, "Enough is enough. Leeds have won too many home games by the odd goal, it's time for them to drop precious home points". And who else can Warnock now blame other than God? Leeds had 20 shots on goal and were roared on by over 24,000 tight arsed Yorshiremen, 5000 of whom only support the team when entry is the price of a KFC Family Bucket. Only God could have stood in the way of victory!

But no matter. Brighton lost! And Leicester only drew. Nothing's changed! Except Leeds no longer have that vital game in hand over Forest, Middlesbrough and Bolton. And that extra home game has been sacrificed in return for a paltry point against a team in the bottom three. And that Leeds charge now reads three points from the last nine. And Forest are on fire, and have a five point advantage with just nine games to go. And Bolton are two points ahead and have won five on the bounce. And there's a gap of  seven points to Leicester who so nearly won at Cardiff.

And Leeds are still in tenth place, still stuck in mid table.

Still, give Warnock nine games more and he will change the world. Meanwhile, I'm off to collect my winnings from Betfair!