The Game's Gone Crazier

For all the latest on the exploits of Uncle Festa, Godfather Cellino, Friar Brian, Old Big Gob, GianFredo Zola, Butterfingers Green, 'Arry the Albatross, The Grand Puppet Master, Il Duce Di Canio, Timmy Sherwood and a cast of thousands!

Tuesday, 12 March 2013

Leeds robbed in 1-1 home draw with Peterborough

Oh dear. It was a fluke of course. How could I know that the game would end up 1-1 just as I predicted and blogged?

One Leeds fan felt the need to post "A resounding lack of objectivity in your analysis there HF - a common mistake amongst the uneducated. Keep your fingers crossed though because if you fluke it then in your head you will be a genius - a common mistake amongst the deluded!"

Another commented "Good work on the maths. You seem to have put some effort into this piece, as opposed to the drivel you write about your own team. Seeing as you've learnt how to work out averages, why don't you work out the average number of points Leeds have won at home, and Posh have won away, and then tell us all who the smart money is on?"

But funnily enough, I wasn't forecasting a Leeds home win or a Peterborough away win, I predicted a 1-1 draw!

For the record, this is exactly what I said:

"But back to Peterborough and Leeds. At home, Leeds have ridden their luck a little in recent weeks and Fortress Elland Road isn't quite what it seems. Leeds are still struggling to score goals and I fancy they will need at least two to beat Ferguson's Peterborough.

Posh may be second from bottom, but they won at Blackburn, which Leeds couldn't do, and thumped a Millwall team away from home that Warnock;s team struggled to overcome at home. Do the calculations and the form of the two teams hasn't been that different if you ignore that seven game losing run that Peterborough suffered before their season really got started. Since then, Posh have averaged 1.31 points per game, whilst Leeds' record over the season has seen them pick up 1.41 points per match.

Given the gulf in the league table, the goal difference is surprisingly close too. Peterborough's stands at minus 10 and Leeds at minus four; but Peterborough's goal difference stood at minus 11 after those first seven games, so they are a goal to the good subsequently.

The biggest problem is that Leeds go into the game expecting to win. All the focus has been on the Leicester and Palace games, and this match is like the water jump after the Chair in the Grand National, apparently easy but fraught with danger nevertheless.

This is a game that neither team can afford not to win. My money is on a 1-1 draw. "

You see, statistics make sense, and that unseen balancer in the universe, He who wants equilibrium and ensures a coin comes down 500 times heads and 500 times tails said, "Enough is enough. Leeds have won too many home games by the odd goal, it's time for them to drop precious home points". And who else can Warnock now blame other than God? Leeds had 20 shots on goal and were roared on by over 24,000 tight arsed Yorshiremen, 5000 of whom only support the team when entry is the price of a KFC Family Bucket. Only God could have stood in the way of victory!

But no matter. Brighton lost! And Leicester only drew. Nothing's changed! Except Leeds no longer have that vital game in hand over Forest, Middlesbrough and Bolton. And that extra home game has been sacrificed in return for a paltry point against a team in the bottom three. And that Leeds charge now reads three points from the last nine. And Forest are on fire, and have a five point advantage with just nine games to go. And Bolton are two points ahead and have won five on the bounce. And there's a gap of  seven points to Leicester who so nearly won at Cardiff.

And Leeds are still in tenth place, still stuck in mid table.

Still, give Warnock nine games more and he will change the world. Meanwhile, I'm off to collect my winnings from Betfair!

35 comments:

  1. Go to bed little boy you have school in the morning.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Methinks HF will be wanking himself silly tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Stop talking like your some football guru! Well done you got a result right! Should have put your money where you mouth is and won a few quid? We didn't struggle against Millwall I was there! There was only one winner in that game and it left you reeling about Stephen Warnock! Tonight's game is 2pts dropped but we go again this Saturday! Still have 5 home games to go!

    ReplyDelete
  4. So you gloat like mad when you finally get one right! I'm sure you made predictions on the previous games, got them wrong and stayed pretty quiet about the fact! Certainly wasn't a thousand word essay on how wrong you were. The statistics didn't work out for you on those occasions did they? You my friend are a bell end! Just like Nostradamus, make enough predictions and some will come true. Atleast he had the decency to keep his predictions to four lines long.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Any chance you could stick your winnings up your aarse once you've collected them.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I correctly predicted you'd be an insufferable git if the score happened to end 1-1. Might go collect my betfair winnings too.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Did they offer odds on that? I should have had a double. Mind you, the odds must have been very cramped!

      Delete
  7. yet another long winded rant from some guy who does not actually go to the ground to watch his own team.

    ReplyDelete
  8. so how much did you wager on the 1-1 cockbreath? you shud get out more!

    ReplyDelete
  9. your so great i think i love you because you are so wise and wonderful,it is like you can see into the future,i don,t know how you do it,i think you must be superman,you seem to have all the answers to the questions that you ask yourself,it,s like you are the great and powerful oz,i wish i was like you because you are great,is there nothing you dont know,can you help me oh wish man with the all seeing eye,i just have one question that as been bugging me for some time know,why do you pretend to go games all the time?

    ReplyDelete
  10. oh yes and whats with the anti Judaism that surrounds your once proud club,oh great oz?what thats not going to press? take your hood of your head and drop your torch,its time to grow up.

    ReplyDelete
  11. p.s you don,t watch your own team,you don,t watch your own team,nar nar nar nar na.

    ReplyDelete
  12. My word your boring

    ReplyDelete
  13. Koh Samui Whites13 March 2013 at 00:55

    Leeds were simply appalling this evening and were extremely fortunate to still have 11 men on the pitch by the final whistle.Outplayed by a team of nobodies. After the game Warnock had the neck to claim some of his players may have been a little complacent,who,s fault would that be then Neil? Leeds have become a laughing stock as you so consistently point out HF,what sickens me even more is the number of Leeds fans who are putting up with it,no offence intended HF but we,re Leeds United,not your ordinary run of the mill team who no one cares about.The apathy just shows how far we have fallen when we accept the dog shit being served up at Elland Road.To quote Guy Ritchie (Lockstock)"if the milks sour i aint the kind of pussy to drink it,know what i mean".Leeds United have had their last pound from me till they stop treating us like complete mugs and show the bare minimum of investment and ambition.Time to take off the rose coloured specs off i,m afraid.I,m sure 90 lies an hour Lorimor will tell us numbties how it really is.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Given the amount of self praise you are spewing for picking 1-1 correctly, its surprising ( or probably not surprising) you didn't utter a squeak about your Leicester 2 Leeds 0 prediction.

    All you managed to do was achieve your 'coin toss' analogy. You keep making enough predictions, you will get one right eventually.

    What you don't like to do is acknowledge when you are wrong, which is mostly. Good thing you have me here to remind you I guess!

    ReplyDelete
  15. Good collect! That might cover your losses from the 12/1 you took on Warnock being sacked by January.
    You're quite a laugh! Looks to me like yesterday Leeds were 6 points off 6th spot and now they are 5.Perhaps you are talking about your underpants when you say 'nothings changed'.

    ReplyDelete
  16. What can i say hf.you are a fucking genius.if u can predict for me 7 footie results for saturday,i will bow down to you.u dont have to be a genius to know leeds allways fuck it up when the pressure is on.warnock out.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nice of you to say so, but I don't claim to be a genius. The result was, as you say, eminently predictable when you looked at the evidence. That's why I posted the prediction. I hope, like me, you cashed in at the bookmakers!

      Delete
    2. More money for hookers in romania ey hf?

      Delete
    3. Who needs to pay for it? When you look like me and have my intelligence...

      Delete
    4. yawn....more lies!

      Delete
    5. Apparently his wife pays for it...

      Delete
    6. Yes but you're bald, Hammersfan

      Delete
  17. 'On the 8th of March I wrote a 6 line West Ham Blog. On the 9th of March I wrote a 12 line West Ham Blog. Since then I have written over 10 long and detailed Blogs all about Leeds United, and I have written nothing further about West Ham'

    'My name is Hammersfan, and I am a Leeds United addict and closet Leeds United supporter'



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, West Ham haven't played since the Stoke match so things are a little quiet on the Hammers front.

      Delete
    2. Nothing happening with the Team? Nothing to discuss about games coming up?
      That was a bit of a weak response old chap.

      The first thing about coming to terms with your addiction is admitting you have one.

      Delete
  18. Jesus christ hf! Are you serious with this post? One prediction right in a season and you write a huge post like this.get down from your high horse.who do you think you are?

    ReplyDelete
  19. A horse, a horse, Warnock's kingdom for a high horse!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Did you put ALL of your paperround money on 1-1? OrDID YOU SPEND MOST OF IT ON CURLY WURLYS AND SPANGLES.

    ReplyDelete
  21. As i said , abused as a child and now no doubt self abusing because you tossed a coin and it came down heads for a 1-1 draw

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What was on tails? 1-0, 0-0 2-0, 3-0, 3-1, 3-2, 0-1, 1-2, 0-3, 1-3, 4-0, 4-1, 4-2, 4-3, 4-4, 5-0 and...

      Delete
    2. Ok genius , what's the score going to be on Saturday ? BUT to truly test your so called football brain , who will score first?? , I'll predict 3-1 Leeds and warnock to score first !!! Or at least that's what my coin toss has predicted

      Delete
  22. HF - I think you riled a lot of us Leeds supporters who were predicting 2-0, 3-0, 5-0 drubbings of an equally incompetent Peterborough side. But as you say based upon evidence the lack of any up front strike power, except for the legend in waiting - Morrison - doesn't suggest anything more than a single goal usually scored by a full back or midfield player. Then blind optimism is what fuels many of us Leeds supporters in these times and when that fails we will become very abusive. You have been warned. Don't burst our bubble for us. Do what Warnock does - keep us believing that everything will come right by the next game - or the one after that. If it doesn't - we run out of games - get the hell out of here fast. I suggest as far south as possible e.g. West Ham or Cornwall.

    ReplyDelete
  23. So, Mr HF, if a man tosses a coin 500 times and on each occasion it lands on heads, what will be the probability of it landing on heads on the 501st spin?

    There is no logic in your assertions and the fact that you chose fit to praise yourself on your random predictions when they randomly come good is, as predicted, delusional in the extreme. I do, however, find your sense of self importance very funny in a Mr Brittas kind of way.

    ReplyDelete
  24. it must be so good being right all the time

    ReplyDelete